Nurse shortage seen worsening

If recruitment for specialized health care workers is competitive, the current job market for nurses would have to be called downright cutthroat.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the need for more than a million new and replacement nurses by 2010. In the Bay Area, hospitals are struggling with a 20 percent nurse vacancy rate -- roughly on par with the rest of the nation. And that shortage is about to get worse.

``This is not going to be a temporary shortage,'' said Kathleen Dracup, dean of the University of California-San Francisco's School of Nursing.

Local schools and hospitals are finding it difficult to train enough nurses. Budget cuts and difficulty in attracting nursing faculty have compromised schools' abilities to handle enough students. The hospitals, meanwhile, are fighting a losing battle with time: The average age of a California nurse is 45.

``A lot of the nurses in my age group are ready to retire,'' said Virgil Parsons, undergraduate coordinator for San Jose State's School of Nursing.

To make matters worse, on Jan. 1 California will become the first state to implement mandatory nurse staffing ratios. California ranks 49th in the nation in ratios of nurses to patients, averaging one nurse for every eight or nine patients. On surgical floors, there is a significant increase in mortality for every patient over a ratio of 4-to-1, Dracup said. ``So the law in itself is great news, but who's going to pay for it?''

Hospitals are using increasingly expensive methods to attract and retain nurses. Last year, Kaiser Permanente negotiated a new contract with the California Nurses Association that stunned many in the health field. Nurses at the health giant's 54 Northern California facilities will enjoy huge increases, pushing some of their salaries above $100,000 a year. (In the Bay Area, the average nurse's salary is $65,000 a year.)

Other area hospitals are offering new nursing graduates debt-repayment programs in return for service commitments, recruiting nurses from overseas and hiring traveling nurses.

``None of these methods are sustainable long-term,'' said Catherine Dower, director of the California Workforce Initiative. ``Something will have to change.''